Something’s Full of Something

New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman has surveyed the planet’s resources, and examined its current population and has come to a startling conclusion:

The earth is full.

And to think it became full just 57 years after he was born.

Talk about a lucky break!

But now it’s full and we have to find some solutions, none of which appear to involve the demise of Thomas Friedman.

According to Mr. Friedman, we’ve “crossed some growth/climate/natural resource/population redlines all at once,” but asks why can’t everyone see that the earth is full?

According to the “veteran Australian environmentalist-entrepreneur,” Paul Gilding,

“The only answer can be denial.”

Well, denial plus experience. Which is kind of the same thing.

As far back as 200 years ago, Robert Malthus warned of the grave dangers of unrestrained population growth and the capacity of humans to sustain their ever-expanding numbers. 

That was about six billion people ago.

Then in 1968, Paul Ehrlich wrote “The Population Bomb,” which warned of widespread famine and despair in the 70s should population growth not be immediately checked.

We do recall widespread despair in the 70s but that probably had more to do with the Saturday Night Fever soundtrack and the preponderant use of the color orange in home decor than food shortages.

Regardless, through this deadly combination of denial and centuries of solid experience, humanity seems to be willing to ignore the crisis.

According to Mr. Friedman:

“We’re currently caught in two loops: One is that more population growth and more global warming together are pushing up food prices; rising food prices cause political instability in the Middle East, which leads to higher oil prices, which leads to higher food prices, which leads to more instability.”

Here is a chart of global food prices since 1990.

There is only one conclusion you can draw from a period in which food prices spiked dramatically while population continued to climb at the same rate it always has and we experienced global cooling:

Population growth and global warming caused food prices to spike.

Numbers don’t lie, folks.

Friedman goes on:

“At the same time, improved productivity means fewer people are needed in every factory to produce more stuff.”

Exactly. As the renowned macroeconomist Barack Obama explained:

"The other thing that happened though, this goes to the point you were just making, is there are some structural issues with our economy where a lot of businesses have learned to become much more efficient with a lot fewer workers. If you see it when you go to a bank you use the ATM, you don't go to a bank teller. Or you go to the airport and you use a kiosk instead of checking in at the gate."

Progress. Is there anything it doesn’t ruin?

Friedman concludes:

“So if we want to have more jobs, we need more factories. More factories making more stuff make more global warming, and that is where the two loops meet.”

We’ll call this “Thomas Friedman’s Loopy Theory of Economics.”

To be fair, perhaps someone ripped out the last few chapters of his American History text book, since today's modern American economy consists of about six times the number of service jobs than “factory” jobs, as increasing productivity in manufacturing has lead to the creation of new jobs and greater prosperity for all.

According to Mr. Gilding, that has to end. We must move to more of a “happiness-driven growth model,” and away from a “consumer-driven growth model,” by having people working less and owning less.

“How many people lie on their death bed and say, ‘I wish I had worked harder or built more shareholder value,’ and how many say, ‘I wish I had gone to more ballgames, read more books to my kids, taken more walks?’ To do that, you need a growth model based on giving people more time to enjoy life, but with less stuff.”

I guess I only think that an iPad makes me happy. What I really want to be doing is taking a walk though a park.

With an iPad.

Okay, this happiness-driven growth model is going to take longer to get used to than we thought.

But then, according to Gilding:

“We may be slow, but we’re not stupid.”

Thanks, Mr. Gilding!

We think.

J.