October 16, 2012
CONSENSUS WATCH – 10/16/2012
An ongoing series dedicated to vigorously monitoring emerging threats to The Consensus that global warming is real, caused by humans, and must be addressed at all costs. Because without consensus, scientific conclusions would remain vulnerable to new data.
One of the barriers to convincing the general public that the world is indeed warming due to the human-produced emissions of carbon dioxide is people’s woeful misunderstanding of science in general and the scientific process in particular.
For example (and we feel silly even having to bring this up), when people who are not scientists are told that the earth is going to get warmer they tend to, for whatever reason, assume that the earth is going to get warmer.
We blame the public school system.
Naturally, with this faulty assumption in mind, the news that the earth hasn’t actually warmed for the past 16 straight years despite continuing increases in man-made atmospheric carbon dioxide creates unwarranted doubt among common people. They start suggesting, based on nothing more than the fact that the earth hasn’t warmed, that perhaps models that predicted the earth would warm are wrong.
Now how about we all calm down and look at this like a scientist does, shall we?
Take, for example, famed climatologist Professor Phil Jones, director of the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia. He takes the issue head on, explaining to people who might be skeptical that global warming is real:
“We don’t fully understand how to input things like changes in the oceans, and because we don’t fully understand it you could say that natural variability is now working to suppress the warming. We don’t know what natural variability is doing.”
See? It’s just that they don’t understand it. It’s not as if the models are in any way wrong and need to be fundamentally changed. It's that they just don't happen to be able to reliably predict observed data given a set of known inputs.
If you are like most Planet Moron readers, you’re probably thinking, “I like cheese.” Also, “Shouldn’t scientists consider changing their minds in the face of new data?
Of course they should. For example, in 2009, Professor Jones, commenting on the lack of warming said that:
“…the ‘no upward trend’ has to continue for a total of 15 years before we get worried.”
Now that he’s had a chance to review the new data indicating that we have had “no upward trend” for 16 years, he’s changed his mind
Now he believes that you probably need 20 years before you get worried.
See, and you thought Consensus scientists were inflexible.
In fact, they are so flexible that after years of data that showed little increase in hurricane activity despite predictions to the contrary, they realized that they to rethink the problem. Their solution?
Count things that aren’t hurricanes instead.
By examining the historic record on things that aren't hurricanes such as storm surges, which may or may not have anything to do with hurricanes, scientists can now say that, sure enough, warming causes more hurricanes. Or potential hurricanes. Or things that could be hurricanes. Or not.
Also, it's not warming.
It doesn’t matter. We have a Consensus.
Which reminds us, evidence for global warming can no longer be found in Antarctica “where the bottom of the world is literally melting away”
It is now literally freezing its way up, and increasing in overall ice mass.
Regardless, even though the Antarctic is not melting, the penguins are still going to die because it’s going to melt.
Now that’s flexible.
Now you have a chance to show your support for The Consensus with the Shut up, that’s why T-shirt, the perfect answer to anyone who dares to question the science behind global warming.
In addition to the T-shirt we also have a fashionable beach tote and a set of stackable mugs, so you’ll have the opportunity to show the world that you’re smart enough to know when not to ask too many questions.
And while you're at it, make sure the world knows you won't allow yourself to be bullied by facts with our extensive line of CONSENSUS WATCH MERCHANDISE!
We also have the classic Consensus Watch coffee mug, bag, and beer stein (along with assorted T-shirts, sweatshirts, and other garments): "Consensus Watch Because without consensus, scientific conclusions would remain vulnerable to new data" plus a complete line of "Stop raping the planet! You may, however, touch it inappropriately," items (shirts, coasters, stickers, buttons)
All proceeds raised from the sale of Consensus Watch merchandise go towards ensuring that we never run out of gin.
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Have you ever read the book "Catch 22"? The logic of the pronouncements by the "Global Warming Scientists", sound like they could have come from that book.
Posted by: John Illinois | Oct 17, 2012 4:31:08 PM
I thought the people at rehab said you shouldn't have gin.
Posted by: barryjo | Oct 20, 2012 6:43:33 PM
"Should," being the operative word.
Posted by: Planet Moron | Oct 26, 2012 6:11:06 PM